The Week in Charts (6/8/26)

View the video of this post here.

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Tomorrow (6/9) at 2 PM ET, I’ll be joining YCharts for a Midyear Market Outlook.

We’ll take a data-driven look at where markets stand today, what’s changed over the past six months, and what investors should be watching as we head into the second half of 2026.

Topics will include:

• Why equity markets have remained so resilient
• Is this time different?
• Where the Fed is headed next
• The charts and signals that matter most right now

Register HERE, open to all.

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The most important charts and themes in markets and investing…

1) Welcome to the Mania Phase

Markets don’t move in a linear fashion. Neither does investor psychology.

The rapid rebound from the March correction lows (+19% over 9 weeks) has been accompanied by a dramatic shift in sentiment.

Back in March, there were widespread fears of recession.

Today, investors are once again embracing risk.

The most aggressive segments of the market – high-beta stocks, leveraged ETFs, meme stocks, and companies tied in any way to the AI narrative – have significantly outperformed during the rally:

• The Tech Sector ETF’s ($XLK) recent 47% rally over 9 weeks was its biggest 9-week advance ever, exceeding the parabolic move higher in late 1999.

• Semiconductor stocks ($SOXX ETF) have more than doubled on the year, far outpacing the broad market ($SPY +11%).

• Money continues to pour into the Memory ETF ($DRAM) which became the fastest in history to hit $15 billion in AUM.

• The 3x Semiconductor ETF ($SOXL) is up 1,550% over the last year. That’s a 16x return.

• Meme stocks ($MEME ETF) and High Beta names ($SPHB ETF), which were in line with the market at the end of March, are now crushing the major indices.

• On the flip side, the ratio of the defensive Consumer Staples ETF ($XLP) to the S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) has moved down to its lowest level on record, below where it stood at the dot-com bubble peak in March 2000.

None of these signs necessarily mean a major top is imminent. Bull markets can continue far longer than most expect – and the mania phase can get even crazier from here.

But periods of extreme optimism often coincide with elevated, unrealistic expectations. And the higher expectations rise, the harder they become to satisfy.

Investors would be wise to remember that enthusiasm and fundamentals are not always the same thing.

2) The Emerging Market Earnings Revival

One of the biggest surprises in global markets this year has been the dramatic improvement in emerging market earnings expectations.

After years of disappointing profit growth (see 2015-2025), analysts have sharply increased their forecasts for 2026, with expected earnings for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbing nearly 50% to record highs.

Much of this improvement is being driven by the technology sector, which is projected to account for more than 58% of all earnings growth in the index this year. Even more remarkable: three companies alone (Taiwan Semiconductor, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix) are expected to generate over half of total earnings growth for the entire emerging markets universe.

The surge in earnings expectations comes at a time when emerging market valuations remain historically inexpensive relative to developed markets. While US stocks continue to trade at roughly 21 times forward earnings, well above their long-term average, emerging markets trade at just over 11 times earnings, below their own decade average and at nearly half the valuation of the U.S. market.

The question investors must answer is whether the current pace of profit growth is sustainable – or whether expectations have simply become too optimistic.

3) Crypto Winter

One of the most fascinating developments in 2026 has been the divergence between crypto and other risk assets.

While the S&P 500 has now hit 24 all-time highs on the year, Bitcoin is suffering its longest (242 days) and deepest (-53%) drawdown since 2022.

After the presidential election in November 2024, Bitcoin went vertical on the narrative that the new administration would be favorable to crypto. All of those gains have now been given back.

4) Golden Slumbers

Back in January, Silver was up 64% on the year and Gold was up 25%.

Last week, they both turned negative on the year.

Why the reversal?

A combination of mean reversion, a stronger dollar, and higher nominal/real interest rates.

Additionally, the unnecessary and unwarranted easing from the Fed has ended for now with the market pricing in one rate hike by the end of 2026. That’s a big shift from the two rate cuts expected at the start of the year.

5) Chasing the Hot IPO

US IPOs have averaged a 6% annualized return in the 3 years following their listing.

That’s nearly half the return of the broad stock market.

Investors chase hot IPOs on the belief that they will outperform.

But the reality is that most stocks underperform after going public.

The IPO ETF ($IPO) is one illustration of that…

Another is what happened with Facebook’s stock after its IPO in May 2012…

6) The Jobs Market Comeback

There’s been a dramatic turnaround in the US labor market with 92k jobs per month added over the last 6 months. That’s the strongest 6-month growth rate since February 2025 and a 180-degree reversal from where things looked at the start of the year.

Where are the new jobs coming from?

60% of the job gains in the US over the last 3 months came from just two sectors:

1/ Health Care & Social Assistance: +198k jobs

2/ Leisure & Hospitality: +144k jobs

7) A Few Interesting Stats…

a) On a rolling 5-year basis, US stocks have outperformed International stocks for more than 15 years. This is the longest run of US outperformance in history.

b) What’s the cheapest ticket to see the Knicks vs. Spurs at MSG? Over $10k…

This is the view from that seat:

c) Miami, Florida is the strongest buyer’s market in America with home sellers outnumbering homebuyers by 148%.

d) With $1 trillion, Elon Musk could buy all…
32 NFL Teams ($227 billion)
30 NBA Teams ($165 billion)
30 MLB Teams ($95 billion)
32 NHL Teams ($67 billion)
30 MLS Teams ($23 billion)

And still have more than $400 billion left over.

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And that’s it for this week. Thanks for reading!

Every week I do a video breaking down the most important charts and themes in markets and investing. Subscribe to our YouTube channel HERE for the latest content.

Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Read our full disclosures here.